Full report · Polymarket · last 30 days · address hidden
What fees and overpaying cost this trader this month: $420 — $245.24 in fees + $175 for buying above the price at kickoff. That is 3.2% of the $13,015 it bet.
Two numbers, two jobs
Polymarket shows −$428 for the month: that counts bets still open, at today’s prices. This report looks at the 123 bets that finished in these 30 days: together −$599 after fees. Finished bets are the only ones you can judge one by one. That includes +$41 from 5 bets opened before these 30 days, which are not in the tables below.
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Fees paid to Polymarket
$245.24
The verdict compares what was paid with the price at kickoff. Paid too much, lost: 3 cents or more above it, and lost. Paid too much, won: above it, won anyway. Fair price, lost: the price was right, the result wasn’t — luck, not a decision.
| Market → pick | Paid | At kickoff | Bet | Result | Verdict | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) → Nemiga | 52¢ | 48¢ | $775 | −$784 | paid too much, lost | before kickoff, 1 h before · Oct 04 |
| Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs 3DMAX (BO5) → 3DMAX | 51¢ | — | $445 | −$456 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 23 |
| Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs 3DMAX (BO5) → 3DMAX | 47¢ | — | $375 | −$377 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 23 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MIBR (BO3) → MIBR | 55¢ | — | $329 | −$336 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 17 |
| Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Phantom (BO3) → Phantom | 55¢ | — | $264 | −$270 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 23 |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) → B8 | 62¢ | 66¢ | $178 | −$181 | fair price, lost | before kickoff, 1 h before · Sep 22 |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) → Legacy | 55¢ | — | $164 | −$168 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Oct 03 |
| Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs HOTU (BO5) → HOTU | 66¢ | — | $150 | −$152 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 13 |
| Counter-Strike: Metizport vs GamerLegion (BO1) → GamerLegion | 65¢ | 66¢ | $142 | −$137 | fair price, lost | before kickoff, 3 h before · Sep 17 |
| Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) → fnatic | 60¢ | 60¢ | $120 | −$122 | fair price, lost | before kickoff, 6 h before · Sep 23 |
All finished bets by verdict: paid too much, lost — 3 (−$825); paid too much, won — 6 (+$562); fair price, lost — 21 (−$877); fair price, won — 33 (+$1,911); lost (bet during the game) — 31 (−$2,540); won (bet during the game) — 24 (+$1,053); lost or won, no kickoff price — 5 (+$77). Paid above the kickoff price on 9 bets: $175. That part is decision, not luck.
Fees in these tables cover finished bets only ($239). Another $6 was paid on bets still open or on selling older bets.
By sport or market
Biggest leak by category: CS2 (108 bets, −$792); best: UFC (+$91).
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS2 | 108 | $11,505 | −$792 | $234 |
| Dota 2 | 1 | $11 | −$11 | $0 |
| LoL | 4 | $244 | −$4 | $1 |
| other markets | 5 | $948 | +$77 | $0 |
| UFC | 5 | $307 | +$91 | $4 |
Before vs during the game
Biggest leak by entry timing: in-game (55 bets, −$1,487); best: before start (+$771).
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| during the game | 55 | $4,925 | −$1,487 | $92 |
| no start time | 5 | $948 | +$77 | $0 |
| before kickoff | 63 | $7,141 | +$771 | $147 |
By time of day (UTC)
Biggest leak by time of day: evening 18–24 (23 bets, −$872); best: night 0–6 (+$326).
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| evening 18–24 | 23 | $2,841 | −$872 | $58 |
| afternoon 12–18 | 57 | $5,570 | −$365 | $109 |
| morning 6–12 | 24 | $2,019 | +$272 | $41 |
| night 0–6 | 19 | $2,584 | +$326 | $32 |
Last 10 minutes before kickoff vs earlier
Biggest leak by timing before start: earlier (48 bets, −$206); best: ≤10 min before start (+$977).
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| earlier | 48 | $5,629 | −$206 | $119 |
| last 10 min before kickoff | 15 | $1,512 | +$977 | $29 |
Kept to the end vs sold early
| Bets | Result | Won % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kept to the end | 93 | +$25 | 54% |
| Sold early | 30 | −$665 | 53% |
Selling early vs keeping
30 bets sold before the end. Selling early cost $794 compared with keeping them to the end.
Raising the stake after losses
9 times, after three losses in a row, the next bet was at least twice the usual ($51): −$953 on $2,292 at risk.
Public data only. A review of past trades, not advice.
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