Full report · Polymarket · last 30 days · address hidden
What fees and overpaying cost this trader this month: $804 — $476.27 in fees + $328 for buying above the price at kickoff. That is 4.5% of the $17,761 it bet.
Two numbers, two jobs
Polymarket shows +$191 for the month: that counts bets still open, at today’s prices. This report looks at the 400 bets that finished in these 30 days: together +$386 after fees. Finished bets are the only ones you can judge one by one.
Sample report. A real public Polymarket wallet, address hidden. Numbers frozen on 2026-10-06. Yours is built the same way from your own trades. Check your wallet free.
Fees paid to Polymarket
$476.27
The verdict compares what was paid with the price at kickoff. Paid too much, lost: 3 cents or more above it, and lost. Paid too much, won: above it, won anyway. Fair price, lost: the price was right, the result wasn’t — luck, not a decision.
| Market → pick | Paid | At kickoff | Bet | Result | Verdict | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia vs. Croatia → No | 49¢ | — | $215 | −$221 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 26 |
| Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Goiás EC → Goiás EC | 50¢ | 40¢ | $200 | −$205 | paid too much, lost | before kickoff, 29 h before · Sep 30 |
| Ghana vs. Gambia → Yes | 59¢ | — | $200 | −$204 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 29 |
| Blackpool FC vs. Bromley FC → Yes | 56¢ | 58¢ | $135 | −$138 | fair price, lost | before kickoff, 5 days before · Sep 07 |
| Georgia vs. Ukraine → Yes | 27¢ | — | $100 | −$104 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 28 |
| Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Goiás EC → No | 23¢ | 15¢ | $100 | −$104 | paid too much, lost | before kickoff, 29 h before · Sep 30 |
| India vs. Brazil → Yes | 33¢ | 30¢ | $100 | −$103 | fair price, lost | before kickoff, 19 h before · Oct 02 |
| Guinea vs. Kenya → Yes | 40¢ | 34¢ | $100 | −$103 | paid too much, lost | before kickoff, 24 h before · Sep 30 |
| Ghana vs. Gambia → No | 44¢ | — | $100 | −$103 | lost (bet during the game) | during the game · Sep 29 |
| Czechia vs. England → Yes | 49¢ | 50¢ | $100 | −$103 | fair price, lost | before kickoff, 2 h before · Sep 29 |
All finished bets by verdict: paid too much, lost — 32 (−$1,595); paid too much, won — 27 (+$939); fair price, lost — 105 (−$3,632); fair price, won — 172 (+$4,991); lost (bet during the game) — 38 (−$1,531); won (bet during the game) — 22 (+$1,208); lost or won, no kickoff price — 4 (+$5). Paid above the kickoff price on 59 bets: $328. That part is decision, not luck.
Fees in these tables cover finished bets only ($406). Another $70 was paid on bets still open or on selling older bets.
By sport or market
Biggest leak by category: other sports (139 bets, −$984); best: soccer (+$1,214).
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| other sports | 139 | $5,327 | −$984 | $123 |
| crypto | 4 | $36 | +$5 | $4 |
| F1 | 2 | $54 | +$17 | $1 |
| NBA | 3 | $81 | +$51 | $1 |
| tennis | 1 | $172 | +$83 | $5 |
| soccer | 251 | $12,091 | +$1,214 | $273 |
Before vs during the game
Biggest leak by entry timing: in-game (60 bets, −$323); best: before start (+$704).
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| during the game | 60 | $3,052 | −$323 | $102 |
| 5-minute markets | 4 | $36 | +$5 | $4 |
| before kickoff | 336 | $14,673 | +$704 | $301 |
By time of day (UTC)
Biggest leak by time of day: morning 6–12 (107 bets, −$644); best: afternoon 12–18 (+$833).
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| morning 6–12 | 107 | $3,299 | −$644 | $70 |
| evening 18–24 | 153 | $6,984 | +$89 | $177 |
| night 0–6 | 17 | $887 | +$107 | $23 |
| afternoon 12–18 | 123 | $6,591 | +$833 | $136 |
Long shots vs the rest
Biggest leak by price: longshots ≤15¢ (21 bets, −$252); best: regular (+$639).
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| long shots (15¢ or less) | 21 | $480 | −$252 | $21 |
| the rest | 379 | $17,281 | +$639 | $386 |
Last 10 minutes before kickoff vs earlier
Biggest leak by timing before start: ≤10 min before start (7 bets, −$34); best: earlier (+$738). Only 7 bets — could be chance.
| Bets | Bet | Result | Fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| last 10 min before kickoff | 7 | $214 | −$34 | $5 |
| earlier | 329 | $14,459 | +$738 | $296 |
Kept to the end vs sold early
| Bets | Result | Won % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kept to the end | 383 | −$676 | 54% |
| Sold early | 17 | +$1,062 | 94% |
Selling early vs keeping
17 bets sold before the end. Selling early cost $867 compared with keeping them to the end.
Raising the stake after losses
10 times, after three losses in a row, the next bet was at least twice the usual ($30): +$330 on $1,070 at risk. It worked this month; it usually does not — watch it.
Public data only. A review of past trades, not advice.
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