The short answer
Yes. In a study of about 2.5 million Polymarket users by Pat Akey, Vincent Grégoire, Nicolas Harvie and Charles Martineau, about 70% lost money and about 30% made money, counting everything they traded from November 2022 to March 2026. For most of the traders who lost, the bets themselves cost more than the fees. But the fee is a real part of the loss, and in some markets it decides whether the month ends up or down.
To see your own month next to its fees, type your Polymarket @name or paste your profile address into the free check above.
What the big study found
The authors rebuilt the accounts of Polymarket users from public trading data: 588 million trades, $67 billion in volume. A user's result counts the money in the account and open bets at their market price. The paper and the authors' public data notes give these numbers:
- About 70% of users lost money. About 30% ended up ahead.
- The gains went to a few. The top 1% of users with a profit took 76.5% of all profits. The top 0.1% took 51.2%.
- How they traded mattered. The authors found that successful traders tended to use limit orders that wait for their price, and unsuccessful traders tended to buy and sell instantly at the screen price. On Polymarket, an instant buy or sale is the trade that pays the fee.
A second look comes from Bitquery. They took every crypto "up or down" market, such as the 5-minute ones, that opened and ended inside one week in August 2026. 31% of wallets finished that week ahead, after fees. Before fees, the crowd as a whole finished level, to within a tenth of one percent. After fees, the same crowd was down by nearly the whole amount it had paid in fees. Bitquery puts the fees on these markets from January to mid-August 2026 at about $150 million.
What we saw in 113 wallets
We looked at 113 public wallets checked on polyfees that paid $1 or more in fees in the last 30 days. For each wallet we took the 30-day profit or loss that Polymarket shows on the profile, and the fees from Polymarket's own public records, to the cent. "No fees" below is the profile number plus the fees: the same bets, with no fee paid.
One thing to say first: these wallets are not a fair picture of all traders. Many of them come from Polymarket's leaderboards, and most trade often. So more of them are ahead than in the whole crowd. The study above is the better guide to "how many people make money". Our numbers show something the study does not: how much of each month went to fees.
- 58 of 113 were ahead, as Polymarket shows it. With no fees, 70 would have been ahead.
- 12 of 113 had a profit before fees and a loss after them. The fee turned their month.
- 55 wallets ended the month with a loss. For the middle one of them, the fees were 35% of the loss. For 21 of the 55, the fees were half of the loss or more.
- The typical wallet (the median) paid 2.04% of the money it put into bets in fees.
The picture changes a lot with the type of trading:
| Trading | Wallets | Ahead, no fees | Ahead, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-minute crypto | 36 | 20 | 9 |
| Sports during the game | 26 | 15 | 15 |
| Sports before the game | 13 | 9 | 9 |
| All 113 wallets | 113 | 70 | 58 |
Sports includes esports. Wallets that trade mostly other markets are in the last row, not in the rows above it.
In 5-minute crypto, the fee turned 11 of 36 months from a profit into a loss. Many of these wallets were close to even before fees, so the fee was enough to decide the month. More on these markets: Polymarket 5-minute markets and fees. In sports, in our data, the fee did not change which wallets were ahead: the same 15 and the same 9 were ahead with and without fees. The fees still came out of their money, but the result of the bets was larger than the fee.
So, carefully: for most traders who lose on Polymarket, the bets are the bigger part of the loss. The fee is a noticeable part of it. In 5-minute crypto, the fee often decides the month; in sports, in our data, it did so less often. 113 wallets are a sample, not everyone.
Picks or fees: how to tell for your own month
You need two numbers for the same 30 days:
- The profit or loss on your Polymarket profile. The fees are already taken out of it. More on what is inside it: what your Polymarket profit means.
- Your total fees. Polymarket shows the fee on each trade, but never adds them up. Ways to find the total: how much have I paid in Polymarket fees.
Profile number + fees = the same bets with no fees. If that number is a profit and the profile shows a loss, the fees turned your month. If both are losses, compare the fees with the loss: that tells you how much of the loss went to fees and how much to the bets.
The free check above does this for you: the profile number, the fees to the cent, the month with no fees, and what Polymarket paid back. No login and no keys: your profile address is already public. To see which bets won and which lost money, the full report for $19 goes through the finished bets one by one.
Questions
Do most people lose money on Polymarket?
Yes. A study of about 2.5 million Polymarket users, from November 2022 to March 2026, found that about 70% lost money. The gains were concentrated: the top 1% of users with a profit took 76.5% of all profits.
What percentage of Polymarket traders make money?
About 30% of users were ahead over their whole time on Polymarket, in the study by Akey and co-authors. In one August 2026 week of short crypto "up or down" markets, Bitquery found 31% of wallets ahead after fees. The share depends on the period and the markets, and a list of active or leaderboard wallets will show more winners than the whole crowd.
Do fees make Polymarket traders lose?
Sometimes. In 113 public wallets we checked over 30 days, the fees turned 12 months from a profit into a loss, and 11 of those 12 were in 5-minute crypto. For the 55 wallets that lost money, the fees were 35% of the loss for the middle wallet, and half of the loss or more for 21 of them. For most, the bets were the larger part of the loss.
Is Polymarket easier to win than a sportsbook?
We don't have a fair comparison of how many people win in each place, so we can't say. What we can compare is the cost: Polymarket charges a fee on each instant buy and sale, and a sportsbook builds its margin into the odds. The numbers side by side are in Polymarket vs sportsbook fees.
How do I see whether fees or bets cost me more?
Type your Polymarket @name or paste your profile address into the free check above. It shows the profit or loss Polymarket shows for the last 30 days, the fees to the cent, and the same month with no fees. The gap between the two results is what the fees took; the rest is the bets.